In July 2023, Ali Haider Dogar, a farmer from central-eastern Pakistan, faced devastating crop losses when floodwaters overwhelmed his fields after India released water from the Sutlej River to manage flash floods in its northern areas. His family suffered losses worth tens of thousands of pounds, and now, following India’s recent suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty after a deadly tourist attack in Kashmir—blamed on Pakistan—Dogar and his Punjab village are gripped with fear. The attack, which claimed 26 lives, has led India to halt trade with Pakistan, expel its diplomats, and suspend visas, prompting Pakistan to retaliate with trade suspension and airspace closure. Islamabad denies any role in the incident, labelling the accusations unfounded.
The Indus Waters Treaty, established in 1960 with World Bank mediation after the 1947 partition, allocated the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India and the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan, surviving three wars and earning praise as a model water-sharing agreement. The treaty’s suspension is alarming for Pakistan, an agrarian nation reliant on these rivers for 80% of its irrigated farming and hydropower. Dogar expressed dread, saying, “We’re terrified India might trigger floods or cut off water for our crops,” noting the loss of data sharing on floods and dam projects as a critical concern. Khalid Khokhar, head of the Farmers’ Association, echoed this, calling water “our lifeline” and warning that any disruption could force farmers to sell possessions or borrow heavily, especially with low rainfall worsening the situation.
Experts agree that India cannot immediately block water flows, as the treaty restricts it from building hydropower plants without ample storage on Pakistan’s rivers. Himanshu Thakkar from the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People noted that significant water diversion would require years, if not over a decade, of infrastructure development. A Pakistani water specialist, Naseer Memon, added that India’s current dams can’t halt flows due to technical and economic limitations but warned that ignoring future notification obligations could lead to a humanitarian crisis affecting millions.
India’s suspension letter to Pakistan cited “fundamental changes” since 1960, including population growth, rising agricultural demands, and the push for clean energy through hydropower. A senior Pakistani security official, speaking anonymously, suggested India had long planned to exit the treaty, using the Kashmir attack as a pretext. He urged international intervention, saying, “We can’t let India proceed unchecked.” The tension underscores the delicate balance of this vital resource amid escalating regional disputes.